Prospective Scenarios of Governance and Security in Highly Centralized Political Systems
Keywords:
coercive apparatus, strategic scenarios, regional security, sovereignty, VenezuelaAbstract
The removal of Nicolás Maduro constituted a high-impact political-operational shock, yet it did not automatically entail the dismantling of the regime nor the immediate opening of a political transition. In contexts characterized by a high concentration of coercive power, the decisive variable lies not in the personal figure of the leader, but in the system’s capacity to preserve the cohesion of the state coercive apparatus, effective territorial control, and key logistical and decision-making nodes.
This article examines, from a strategic and reflexive perspective, the evolution of the Venezuelan political system over a ninety-day horizon, understood as the critical phase in which the initial effects of a disruptive event tend to crystallize into more stable strategic trajectories. Drawing on a scenario-building methodology, the analysis identifies driving variables, analytical axes, and verifiable political-military indicators in order to assess plausible courses of action and their systemic implications.
The article develops a matrix of five possible scenarios and evaluates their effects on internal governability, effective sovereignty, and regional stability. Finally, it incorporates maritime-naval implications and analyzes the structural limits of the United Nations and the Security Council when confronted with political crises marked by pronounced power asymmetries.
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